Sediment accumulation rates in subarctic lakes: Insights into age-depth modeling from 22 dated lake records from the Northwest Territories,Canada     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2015

Age-depth modeling using Bayesian statistics requires well-informed prior information about the behavior of sediment accumulation. Here we present average sediment accumulation rates (represented as deposition times, DT, in yr/cm) for lakes in an Arctic setting, and we examine the variability across space (intra- and inter-lake) and time (late Holocene). The dataset includes over 100 radiocarbon dates, primarily on bulk sediment, from 22 sediment cores obtained from 18 lakes spanning the boreal to tundra ecotone gradients in subarctic Canada. There are four to twenty-five radiocarbon dates per core, depending on the length and character of the sediment records. Deposition times were calculated at 100-year intervals from age-depth models constructed using the ‘classical’ age-depth modeling software Clam. Lakes in boreal settings have the most rapid accumulation (mean DT 20 ± 10 yr/cm), whereas lakes in tundra settings accumulate at moderate (mean DT 70 ± 10 yr/cm) to very slow rates, (>100 yr/cm). Many of the age-depth models demonstrate fluctuations in accumulation that coincide with lake evolution and post-glacial climate change. Ten of our sediment cores yielded sediments as old as c. 9000 cal BP (BP = years before AD 1950). From between c. 9000 cal BP and c. 6000 cal BP, sediment accumulation was relatively rapid (DT of 20–60 yr/cm). Accumulation slowed between c. 5500 and c. 4000 cal BP as vegetation expanded northward in response to warming. A short period of rapid accumulation occurred near 1200 cal BP at three lakes. Our research will help inform priors in Bayesian age modeling.  相似文献   

中国西北地区东部地震序列参数与预测余震发生的关系分析          下载免费PDF全文

许晓庆  盛菊琴  马禾青 《地震工程学报》2016,38(4):598-605

对1970—2012年西北地区东部的51次5级以上地震序列进行E_2/E_0、(M_0-M_3)lgN_3、h值、K值和b值等参数的计算,结果表明:在震后地震类型初期判别上可优先考虑E_2/E_0计算和K值计算。E_2/E_0对主余型地震和孤立型地震均有较好的预测效果,且不受早期阶段余震数量的限制,当E_2/E_0参数判断结果为主余型地震或孤立型地震时,基本上可以确定该结果是准确的;K值计算对样本量的限制也较为宽松,通过震例计算发现,一般中强震后2~3天内,余震数量基本都可满足K值计算,且K值具有较高的判别能力,其计算结果也有很好的一致性和稳定性。参数(M_0-M_3)lgN_3对主余型地震类型判断具有较好的判别能力,但计算条件较为严格,在实际工作中可作为依据参考。h值对多震型地震有较高的判断能力,能很好地为震后震情趋势的判断提供参考依据,但该计算参数对样本量要求较高,且其计算结果的稳定性和一致性较弱,因而建议该参数在实际工作中仅可作为参考。  相似文献   

Assessment of a hydrologic model's reliability in simulating flow regime alterations in a changing climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Rajesh R. Shrestha  Markus A. Schnorbus  Daniel L. Peters 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2628-2643

It is a common practice to employ hydrologic models for assessing present and future states of watersheds and assess the degree of alterations for a range of hydrologic indicators. Previous studies indicate that the hydrologic model may not be able to replicate some of the indicators of interest, which raises questions on the reliability of model simulated changes. Hence, we initiated a study to evaluate the replicability of the streamflow changes by employing the widely used variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model for sub‐basins and mainstem of the Fraser River Basin, Canada. Given that the hydrologic regime of the region is known to be influenced by teleconnections to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), we used hydrologic responses to the PDO and ENSO states as analogues for evaluating the model's ability to simulate climate‐induced changes. The results revealed that the qualitative patterns of response, such as lower flows for the warm PDO state compared to the cool state, and progressively higher flows for the warm, neutral and cool ENSO states, were generally well reproduced for most hydrologic indicators. Additionally, while the directions of change between the different PDO and ENSO states were mostly well replicated, the magnitude of change for some of the indicators showed considerable differences. Hence, replicability of both magnitude and direction of change need to be carefully examined before using the simulated indicators for assessing future hydrologic changes, and a reliable replication increases the confidence of projected changes. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于历史文献资料的17世纪以来东北亚台风信息挖掘     

日小林雄河  潘威 《地理研究》2016,35(7):1344-1352

西北太平洋地区,尤其是东北亚地区,台风灾害多发,这些地区的台风的运动轨迹变化会对社会经济发展带来深刻的影响。台风活动跨海而行,因此将东北亚几个国家的历史台风信息结合起来,才能看出其全貌。中日两国,最早通过仪器观测描述的台风路径分别为1879年和1878年,历史时期的东北亚地区台风事件只能靠历史文献来推测。以在台风路径的推测上具有问题（台风影响范围评估、详细记录时间的利用、2次相近台风的辨别等）的4次台风事件为例,讨论17世纪以来东北亚台风路径的推测方法。通过对台风个案的讨论,指出将致灾记录和感应记录相结合的可行性;利用仪器观测时期台风记录验证历史文献记载的有效性。相当一部分日记资料在古风暴研究中仍处于未被发掘状态。历史上流传至今的公用日记和各名家的家记,拥有较长的写作时间和较为均质的写作内容,可提高跨国界古风暴研究的时空分辨率。  相似文献   

1979—2012年中国西北地区东部低层水汽异常特征及成因     

赵光平  任小芳 《中国沙漠》2016,36(3):749-759

利用1979-2012年ERA-Interim全球再分析比湿与风场资料,通过累计距平分析、M-K突变检验、相似离度分析等方法研究了中国西北地区东部低层水汽演变特征,并依据导致水汽异常最直接的动力因子(风场差异)对其成因进行了初步探讨。结果表明:近30年西北地区东部低层700 hPa水汽呈弱的增加趋势,整个区域、青海高原区及西风影响区在1996年出现由减少到增多的突变,而季风边缘区的突变发生在1991年;且突变后偏西风减弱,偏南风增强显著。通过定量细化分析各气候区风场变化对水汽的影响,发现青海高原区经向风对水汽除夏季为弱的负贡献外,一般均表现为正贡献,而纬向风为负贡献;季风边缘区年平均经向风正贡献值为0.28 g·kg^-1,纬向风为-0.46 g·kg^-1;西风影响区冬春两季经纬向风一般均为弱的负贡献,夏秋两季一般为正贡献。依据特定区域、典型月份风场的气候型态差异分析,发现单一区域内的低层风偏差对水汽分布的影响与控制相差甚大,而不同背景下相邻区域内的风场配置及不同区域间的风场相互作用可能是水汽变化或异常的主要原因。  相似文献   

Derelict fishing nets in Puget Sound and the Northwest Straits: Patterns and threats to marine fauna     

Thomas P. Good  Jeffrey A. June  Ginny Broadhurst 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(1):39-50

Derelict fishing gear remains in the marine environment for years, entangling, and killing marine organisms worldwide. Since 2002, hundreds of derelict nets containing over 32,000 marine animals have been recovered from Washington’s inland waters. Analysis of 870 gillnets found many were derelict for years; most were recovered from northern Puget Sound and high-relief rocky habitats and were relatively small, of recent construction, in good condition, stretched open, and in relatively shallow water. Marine organisms documented in recovered gillnets included 31,278 invertebrates (76 species), 1036 fishes (22 species), 514 birds (16 species), and 23 mammals (4 species); 56% of invertebrates, 93% of fish, and 100% of birds and mammals were dead when recovered. For all taxa, mortality was generally associated with gillnet effectiveness (total area, age and condition, and suspension in the water). Mortality from derelict fishing gear is underestimated at recovery and may be important for species of economic and conservation concern.  相似文献   

西北太平洋红外辐射计海表温度数据交叉比对分析   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

奚萌  宋清涛  林明森  邹斌  李文君  徐玉柱 《海洋与湖沼》2017,48(3):436-453

本文将西北太平洋海域作为研究区域,以2003—2009年的三个海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)红外产品(AVHRR Pathfinder/NOAA,MODIS/Terra和MODIS/Aqua)为研究对象,分别与Argo浮标数据进行了真实性检验,同时红外产品之间也进行了交叉比对分析。通过评定产品间的差异及使用条件,为融合产品数据源选取和权重分配提供参考依据,用以提高融合产品的数据质量。结果表明,三种红外数据与Argo浮标的平均偏差在±0.2°C之间,均方根误差小于0.8°C,且存在明显的季节性变化,白天的平均偏差均是夏季为正、冬季为负,夜间的平均偏差基本均为负偏差,冬季比夏季的偏差更大,冬季的均方根误差较小;三种红外数据之间的平均偏差在±0.1°C之间,均方根误差小于0.6°C;三个红外产品在空间上均能反映西北太平洋海域的海表温度变化趋势,三个产品之间无明显优劣差异;尽管红外数据的空间覆盖率偏低,但是它提供了高精度和高特征分辨率的数据产品,并弥补了近岸海域缺乏观测数据的不足。  相似文献   

西北边境地区冰冻圈遥感调查与监测(2013—2015年)主要进展   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

燕云鹏  刘刚  李瑜  刘建宇  王怿飞  张博文  韩聪 《中国地质调查》2017,4(3):51-56

2013—2015年由中国国土资源航空物探遥感中心牵头开展了中国地质调查局地质调查项目“西北边境地区国土资源遥感综合调查”,我国西北边境高寒、高海拔地区的冰冻圈遥感调查是其中一项重要内容。冰冻圈遥感调查的主要进展有: 基于地形地貌、地温分布和坡度坡向特征等综合信息完成了藏北等地区的多年冻土范围调查; 利用高分1号(GF-1)宽幅数据和Landsat数据,对2013年1月—2014年12月期间阿里西部地区近10 000 km²的积雪覆盖情况进行了连续19个期次的动态监测; 基于1999—2013年间的Landsat多期影像,对班公湖和斯潘古尔湖冷季6个月份的湖冰覆盖情况进行了动态调查。  相似文献   

胶东三山岛金矿构造控矿规律研究     

杨奎锋  朱继托  程胜红  刘玄  江鹏  范宏瑞 《大地构造与成矿学》2017,41(2):272-282

胶东西北部是我国重要的金矿聚集区,矿床类型以石英脉型和破碎带蚀变岩型为主。发育在三山岛–仓上断裂内部的三山岛金矿床是胶东西北部蚀变岩型金矿的典型代表。最新的勘探结果显示,三山岛金矿在大于2 km的垂深处仍有很好的金矿化,而且三山岛金矿的一个显著特点是主矿体均发育在断裂内部的断层泥之下,断裂的形成和演化对金矿床的形成及矿体的空间分布具有重要的控制作用。作者通过不同尺度的构造分析后发现,在三山岛金矿床形成过程中,区域构造应力场的状态发生过明显的转变,由成矿前的右行张扭,转变为成矿初期的NNW-SSE向挤压左行剪切应力场,三山岛主断裂也在成矿期发生左行挤压逆冲活动,主断裂封闭,主断裂内的断层泥逐渐形成,封堵成矿热液于断层泥之下,形成三山岛矿区大规模的破碎带蚀变岩型矿化。  相似文献   

西北太平洋海域太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群产卵场指数动态评估     

夏欣梅  田永军  刘阳  刘世刚  李建超  马舒扬 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2022,52(3):61-71

为探究太平洋褶柔鱼(Todarodes pacificus)秋生群资源丰度波动的原因,本研究利用适宜产卵的海表温度(SST)和水深数据,构建了太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群1979—2018年40年潜在产卵场模型,在此基础上开发了适宜海表温度均值(MVSS)、适宜性海表温度加权面积(SSWA)和等温线经向位置(MP)3种产卵场指数...  相似文献